Spread Volatility

This is a sample table of the relative volatility of the spreads offered by the spread betting firms. The higher the volatility of the spread then the lower your unit stake should be.

The Excel spreadsheets for the 2003/2004 season contain the volatilities for all the spreads (including the ones hidden by the asterisks) and are sent to all members free of charge. These spreadsheets are also available to non-members to buy for 9.50. To purchase the spreadsheets on-line please click here.

Spreads

Premiership

Division One

Goal Supremacy

1.73

***

Total Goals

***

1.64

Total Corners

3.61

***

Cross Corners

***

20.9

Bookings Index

25.9

***

Time First Home Goal

***

31.0

Time First Away Goal

31.1

***

Time First Goal

***

27.0

     Time First H + A Goal

44.0

***

Time Second Goal

***

25.9

Time Last Goal

27.3

***

Time All Goals

***

91.1

     Home Win Index 10.6 ***
     Away Win Index *** 10.3
     Home Leading Minutes 30.1 ***
     Away Leading Minutes *** 25.8
     Home Team Bookings 14.9 ***
     Away Team Bookings *** 16.8
     Bookings Supremacy 20.0 ***
     Corners Supremacy *** 4.3

 

 

 

Performance Indexes

 

 

Cantor Sport

35.0

***

IG Index

***

55.8

Sporting Index

36.0

***

Spreadex

***

31.8

sportsspread

37.4

***

     

Mini Performance

18.9

***

     
     IG Match Performance

***

25.3


In order to arrive at a unit stake for a particular spread simply divide the volatility into a figure that produces a unit stake that you are comfortable with. For instance if you normally bet 100 per goal on a Premiership supremacy bet then your 'figure' would be 176. To get the unit stake for a bet on the time of the second goal in a Premiership match divide 176 by 26.4 = 6.67 (7 per minute), to get the unit stake for the IG Performance index on a Division One game divide 176 by 56.0 = 3.14 (3 per point) and so on.

If your normal stake on a supremacy bet in the Premiership is 25 then your 'figure' would be 44 (ie 25 * 1.76) so your unit stake for a total corners bet on a Premiership match would be 44 / 3.69 = 11.92 (12 per corner) and your unit stake for a bookings index bet would be 44 / 26.3 = 1.67 (2 per point). See the table of sample unit stakes for examples of different unit stakes for the various spreads.

All members receive the Excel spreadsheets which automatically calculate the unit stakes for any particular bet.

All potential bets in the Weekly Reviews are based on a minimum difference between the Soccer Spreads rating and the best spread available of at least a quarter of the spread volatility. For a sample of the volatilities of spreads involving a number of matches please see the Groups of Matches page.

These spread volatilities are updated once a year during the summer break and are based on the last five years of data (apart from the volatilities for the Groups of Matches which are based on all the available data).


All content is copyright 1999 - 2004 by Soccer Spreads. All rights reserved.